Connecting the Dots / An Agency Blog

Last-Click Attribution Bites the Dust

It’s sad, but true. The age of the “Click” and its cousin CTR (click through rate) is over. For 10+ years, almost since the advent of online advertising, the click has been the anchor metric of online campaigns. As several recent studies have shown, the click can no longer be cast as the hero.

What we’ve learned with the drop-off in click activity is that last-click attribution is a poor way to measure the value of display campaigns. Attribution is a wordy way of saying, “Who generated the sale? lead? conversion?” With every new study on display, global click-through rates continue to decline and the ad unit suffers another reputation hit. I’ll put my Obama hat on here so there is no misunderstanding. ‘Let me be clear. Exclusive examination of the click-through rate and its connected goals will lead you astray. You may credit campaigns when credit isn’t due. You might even fault your media planners or your creative agency without realizing that you’re looking at the wrong data.’

At a minimum, campaign marketers should be reviewing the numbers that suggest attribution. Let me start with the metrics bit – Avinash Kaushik, Analytics Evangelist at Google, suggests looking at changes in visitor loyalty from pre-campaign to post-campaign. A lift to these visit-based metrics would support the assertion that the display campaign generated traffic. That’s top-level stuff. Want to dig deeper? Look at the average time on site generated by each campaign and ‘attribute’ a relative percentage to establish an Attribution Credit Score. Again, Mr. Kaushik has some nice content on this topic.

If it really is a brand campaign and the goals are oriented against awareness, consider a social marketing tool like Radian6 to monitor the conversations around your keywords and competitors – are they changing? If you’re not using social monitoring tools or considering how to get started soon, raise your right hand, open your palm and apply it to your forehead…repeatedly. Social marketing is not just about Facebook and Twitter. Consider starting simply by listening (social speak for measure) – you’ll learn loads about how people are reacting to your campaigns, your brand and your competitors.

If the ‘getting your hands dirty’ approach isn’t your thing, consider the following top-level studies on attribution and display’s contribution to the bottom line.

• A 2008 Microsoft study demonstrated that search engine users exposed to display ads were 22% more likely to purchase. (Direct Traffic)
• In December 2008, comScore reported that display advertising clicks are tanking, however the same ads deliver a significant lift to site visits (46% increase over 4 week period) and branded search (38% increase in searches for branded terms over 4 week period)
• Frequency Rules! A Coremetrics report on etailing in 2009 found that less than one half of buyers responded to one campaign.
• Juicy Stat: In the some Coremetrics report, all buyers interacted with 3.9 campaigns before buying and campaign touches rose to 7.4 for high-value customers

Recent announcements by several companies including Coremetrics and Google indicate that the big players in analytics and search recognize the importance of this problem. In addition, current customers of Coremetrics and DoubleClick (Google’s Ad Network) are now able to attribute value across campaigns and understand how they contributed to conversion. For an overview of attribution, see Avinash Kaushik and John Marshall’s video on Attribution and ROI. Their “relatively” straightforward model is a nice introduction to the challenges of attribution.

While no model for attribution seems to have won out, the last-click model is done, cooked, finished. Be brave – talk to your agency about upcoming campaigns and dive into this topic. Your head may hurt, but your reports will have a better chance of passing the smell test.

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